Three weeks ago, we noted that sanctions continued to tighten on Russia and asked whether China would come to Moscow’s rescue (no it wouldn’t we concluded). However, three weeks on from the initial question and it appears that OPEC+ has instead decided to come to Russia’s aid. That may not be too surprising – RussiaContinue reading “OPEC+ cuts output, Russian oil price cap proposals move forward”
Tag Archives: oil price
Outlook for oil prices and the LNG market
I was recently interviewed by a European business magazine on the outlook for oil prices and the global gas market, which I thought I could usefully turn into a blog this week. What’s happening in the oil market, production was first cut and now it’s been increased again. How much of this is about politics?Continue reading “Outlook for oil prices and the LNG market”
OPEC+ raises output – no surprise & price outlook positive
Oil prices have been in the news again – mainly because the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) met yesterday to decide what to do with the cartel’s output. Ignore the headlines that they’ve opened the taps and prices are only going one way – down. So far, from what I can see, there’s nothingContinue reading “OPEC+ raises output – no surprise & price outlook positive”
Oil demand weak into next year…at least
The collapse in global oil demand looks set to continue into 2021 according to the International Energy Agency’s latest analysis. They conclude that demand won’t rise above the 2019 level of 99.8 mbd before 2022 or even 2023 depending on the path the coronavirus takes. If there is a second wave – as many fearContinue reading “Oil demand weak into next year…at least”
OPEC+ extends output cuts for a month
Prices rising but a challenge from compliance and a threat from the shale recovery Late last Friday night I was asked to comment by a well-known journal on what OPEC+ might do about oil production, given that their next meeting was fast approaching. I said I thought they would extend their 9.7 mbd cut fromContinue reading “OPEC+ extends output cuts for a month”
Capex challenges for the oil and gas sector
Negative outlook for US domestic production and its energy strategyEarlier this week I realised that output levels, and the profitability of production at these depressed price levels, was an interesting topic to look into since current oil prices appear too low to enable most producing countries and companies to operate profitably. Capital expenditure features heavilyContinue reading “Capex challenges for the oil and gas sector”
A bad week for Big Oil – price collapse takes its toll…with worse to come?
The last week was quieter in the oil markets as far as prices were concerned and there was a steady drift upwards on the back of some economies partially reopening. It was, however, reporting week for the oil companies and their results showed just how badly each of them had been affected by the collapseContinue reading “A bad week for Big Oil – price collapse takes its toll…with worse to come?”
After oil at -$40, what next?
Last Monday we warned that oil prices could turn negative. That evening they did just that, with the main US domestic grade WTI trading as low as -$40/bbl for the May contract (sellers were paying buyers to take the oil). There were very specific circumstances surrounding that price move: the May contract was expiring thatContinue reading “After oil at -$40, what next?”
Oil price crisis intensifies
We said last week that lower oil prices were inevitable. We based that assessment on the ongoing mismatch between collapsing demand (forecast to have fallen by between 25-30 mbd) and supply cuts (of just 9.7 mbd) which have not even been implemented yet. The OPEC+ agreement falls short of what needed to be done andContinue reading “Oil price crisis intensifies”
OPEC+ agree output cuts
Over the past weekend OPEC+ (OPEC plus Russia – and now plus a few other countries as well) announced that it had reached an agreement to cut oil production in response to the dramatic falls in oil demand following the economic dislocation caused by the Covid-19 virus. Supply/DemandGlobal oil demand is around 100 million barrelsContinue reading “OPEC+ agree output cuts”
Prospects for the recovery of the global oil market
On January 1, Brent crude oil was trading above $66/bbl. Three months later, it had fallen by more than 60% from that level. A coronavirus-driven decline was followed by a collapse when the three-year old agreement between OPEC and Russia to cut production and raise prices broke down. The root cause was a three-way tussleContinue reading “Prospects for the recovery of the global oil market”
Oil price declines and the impact on China’s energy complex
Oil prices have been steadily declining in recent weeks as the impact of the coronavirus on energy demand in China and the rest of the world has become evident. This slide accelerated significantly at the beginning of this week when Russia decided to end its cooperation with OPEC on reducing world oil production, which hadContinue reading “Oil price declines and the impact on China’s energy complex”
Global Energy Comment 